最新趋势包括海量数据投资机会、全球脱碳以及因为环境、社会和治理 (ESG) 问题而“失宠”的石化中游产业。这些都是在长期趋势中发挥作用的，例如需要大量资本升级的老化公共事业设备，以及各国政府所面临的债务虚高问题。
博枫专注于为重要经济和社会活动提供支柱性支持服务的基础设施资产。其中主要包括电力传输和供配、配水、中游系统、港口、铁路和公路以及通信和数据网络。
鉴于其本质，这些资产通常能够为投资者提供稳定而安全的现金流、下行保护、多元化投资选项、通胀保护和长期负债匹配。通过聚焦核心运营类资产，基础设施战略应该能够在各种经济环境中表现强韧。尽管我们认为基础设施在各种市场条件下对投资者都具有吸引力，但当前的环境似乎尤其充满机遇。
美国电网的现状凸显了基础设施资产普遍老化的问题。根据美国土木工程师协会 (American Society of Civil Engineers) 发布的 2021 年基础设施报告卡 (2021 Infrastructure Report Card)，美国 70% 的输配电系统已进入生命周期后半期。1因此，近期各地出现了多次停电事故，影响到全国范围内的大量客户（见图 1）。目前美国很多公用事业运营商仍然采用公有制，由联邦、州或市政运营。
与此同时，全球范围内的发达经济体所背负的债务已达历史高位。早在新冠疫情及其导致的经济停摆出现之前，这种趋势就已经出现。人口结构的失衡（包括人口萎缩和老龄化）、福利计划的扩充以及刺激借贷的长期低利率环境，导致美国和许多欧盟国家出现了前所未有的政府赤字。（见图 2）。
政府赤字（万亿美元）
Digitalization
Data is the world’s fastest-growing commodity. The total amount of data generated globally doubles every 18 months.1 This data needs to be stored, processed and transferred over wireline and wireless networks for routine consumption, driving demand for storage (data centers) and transmission assets (fiber networks and towers), all requiring significant infrastructure investment.
With the rise of AI, rapid development of related technologies will affect the operations of many critical infrastructure assets and industries. Data centers, for example, will be needed to provide the infrastructure to store and transmit the proliferation of data supporting AI tools. To put this in context, recent analysis shows that a simple ChatGPT query takes three to 36 times more energy than a similar Google search, reinforcing the impact AI innovations will have on one part of the infrastructure value chain.
Digitalization investment opportunities are wide-ranging across the infrastructure universe (see Figure 3). These include the need to upgrade networks from copper to fiber to support faster speeds, more bandwidth and lower latency. An infrastructure buildout is also needed to support the rollout of 5G and new wireless solutions, such as new cell towers, as well as additional data centers to support the migration to the cloud.
资本支出（2020 年 - 2025 年）
Digitalization is also driving investment opportunities in clean energy, particularly when it comes to powering all those data centers (see Figure 4). Technology companies are seeking to decarbonize their global energy supplies and reduce carbon emissions. As a result, we see significant opportunities to deliver additional renewable energy capacity within the U.S. and Europe, and beyond to Asia Pacific, India and Latin America to support tech companies’ growth aspirations and green energy commitments.
（十亿美元）
Decarbonization
With the global urgency to decarbonize, many governments and companies are setting the goal of net-zero emissions by 2050. Trillions of dollars in investment are needed to get there (see Figure 5). This is resulting in an outsized market opportunity in renewable energy sources. What’s more, the cost of renewable energy—particularly solar and wind—has dropped dramatically in recent years and is now lower than fossil-fuel generation in most markets.
疫情出现后，政府财政压力进一步加大，使得这一问题更加严峻。
在基础设施领域，很多传统资产运营商都面临着巨大的系统维护资金缺口。例如，美国土木工程师协会估计，美国在 2020 年至 2029 年之间累计资金缺口总额将达 2.5 万亿美元（见图 3）。
政府主要可以通过三种方式来解决这一问题。其一，他们可以增加税收，但这种方法产生的额外收入相当有限；其二，他们可以转向私营部门来提供服务；其三，他们可以出售资产并用所得收益来帮助重建资产负债表。作为私人投资者，我们期待后两种方法能为兼具运营专业知识与大规模灵活资本的投资者带来大量机会。
Trade as a % of Global GDP
其中，大部分数据仍在通过老旧的网络进行全球传输。尽管电信业已经顺利完成了从铜缆向光纤的巨大变革，但这种转变仍需延伸到“最后一英里”——到达最终用户所在地，无论是办公室、零售场所还是住宅。行业要想满足客户不断增长的容量和速度需求，就需要大量的投资。
另外，随着 5G 在全球范围内的逐步落地，将需要建设更多的移动通信塔和数据中心。与此同时，电信公司开始将成熟资产出售给专业基础设施投资者，以为扩建项目筹集资金。这种方式一方面使得电信公司能够与经验丰富的第三方运营商长期合作，享受他们提供的服务；另一方面也为这些运营商也提供了稳定的长期现金流。
我们预计，仅在未来五年，全球数据基础设施升级就需要至少 1 万亿美元的投资（见图 4）。这项任务可谓十分艰巨。
天然气仍将在电力行业发挥重要作用
目前全球各国已达成共识，即必须减少现代生活各个领域的碳排放。各国政府纷纷郑重承诺致力于实现脱碳目标，私营部门也争相设定碳排放目标，积极加入脱碳队伍。
好消息是，近年来可再生能源（尤其是太阳能和风能）的成本出现了大幅下降（见图 5）。如今，即使没有政府支持，可再生能源投资也能实现收益。
据高盛（Goldman Sachs）预测，若要在 2030 年之前将全球温升控制在 2°C 以内，总计需要高达 16 万亿美元的投资。2鉴于这些脱碳计划的规模，我们认为其将为在清洁能源解决方案领域具有专业知识的大型投资者带来重大机遇。随着可再生能源行业的日益成熟及其对私人资本吸引力的日趋增加，收购产生现金流的运营性可再生资产的前景也将十分广阔。
Total Spending
然而，未来几年市场仍然需要依靠中游资产来完成向可再生和可持续平台的有效转化。因此，在可预见的未来，化石燃料仍将是能源结构的重要组成部分（见图 6）。他们将帮助支持风能和太阳能等低碳替代能源的发展。
Risk/Return Spectrum
然而，各种化石燃料在碳排放方面的表现也不尽相同。天然气产生的污染和碳排放量远低于煤炭，可用于补充不断增长的可再生能源系统。汽油易于储存，在风电和光伏匮乏的情况下能够快速响应，有效避免电力不足和停电事故。
天然气价格波动较大，很容易对市场投资热情造成影响。为了规避这种波动，投资者可以专注于高度防御性、合同化的稳定资产，例如中游管道或天然气液化和再气化设施。波动性也可以为私人投资者带来机会，便于他们在有利的时点进入该行业。尽管这些资产寿命有限，但我们相信其将在未来数十年的净零排放转型之旅中发挥关键作用同时提供颇具吸引力的投资机会。天然气运输网络也可能有助于未来绿色氢和碳封存的出现。
与此同时，疫情给运输业带来了前所未有的不确定性。由于全球范围内实施旅行限制，通过机场、港口和高速公路的旅客和货物数量大为减少。投资者无法确定需求何时能恢复到疫情爆发前的水平，因此避开这种资产类别的决定也不难理解。由于疫苗接种在很多国家仍处于早期阶段，该行业的全球前景仍远未明朗。
然而，作为港口和收费公路的所有者和运营商，Brookfield 看到：在必要的合同协议保障下，这些资产可以在中断期间表现良好。鉴于围绕这一资产类别的负面情绪，我们认为可能有机会以有吸引力的估值收购优质资产。
Average Quarterly Returns During 10 Worst Quarters for Equity Markets
Inflation mitigation
Infrastructure has proved to be an effective inflation hedge, and price volatility in recent years has demonstrated the advantage of such inflation mitigation (see Figure 11).
Returns of utilities, for example, are typically regulated and have some form of inflation mitigation and cost pass-through mechanisms. Other types of infrastructure can include single assets that have contractual provisions whereby revenues are indexed to inflation or operating businesses that have dominant market positions and can pass cost increases to customers.
Average Quarterly Returns During Periods of Above-Average Inflation
Income
Operating infrastructure assets generally provide predictable long-term cash flows. These can translate to stable yields for investors.
Essential services included in infrastructure often offer protected recurring revenue with inflation indexing as regulated utilities or from long-term take-or-pay contracts.
Long duration
Finally, investing in infrastructure can offer attractive long duration exposure. Assets tend to have a long life and tend to be held for the long term in portfolios. These assets also tend to be financed with long-term fixed rate debt, reducing refinancing risk. One benefit of this is that market timing is less relevant than for other asset classes, so infrastructure assets can ride out the typical ups and downs of the broader market.
While capital scarcity is a headwind for investments in existing assets and new project development, it is creating a buyer’s market for investors. And combined with strong tailwinds from global long-term trends, infrastructure offers a compelling opportunity for attractive returns and diversification in portfolios.
From an investor’s perspective, infrastructure assets have historically remained stable during periods of market volatility, making infrastructure a compelling asset class for all seasons. Institutional investors have taken note, and infrastructure assets among the nation's top 200 retirement plans were up 212% in the past five years to $72.1 billion, according to Pensions & Investments data as of Sept. 30, 2023. With all the tailwinds in motion, we expect these trends to accelerate over the long term.
While competition for infrastructure assets is increasing globally, managers that remain disciplined in capital deployment—and have the necessary resources, global scale and established sourcing and operational capabilities—should be well positioned to capitalize on attractive infrastructure investment opportunities in the years ahead.
尾注：
1. American Society of Civil Engineers, “2021 Report Card for America’s Infrastructure,” 2021.
2. Goldman Sachs Equity Research, “Carbonomics: The Green Engine of Economic Recovery,” June 2020.
披露
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